The killing of a Hamas political leader has added to tensions in the already fractured region.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated when he travelled to Tehran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezheshkian. Iranian authorities immediately pointed the finger at Israel, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowed to “severely punish” Israel.
“We consider it our duty to avenge the killing of Haniya, as he was martyred in the Islamic Republic of Iran region,” Khamenei said in a statement.
In April, an Israeli airstrike in Syria killed a top Iranian commander. After that there was almost a war between the two countries.
In response to the Israeli attack, Iran launched hundreds of drones and rockets at Israel. In response, an airstrike hit a military airport in the Iranian city of Isfahan.
Hamas leader Haniya has recently visited Iran frequently and regularly meets Iran’s Supreme Leader and other top officials.
Hania was a front-row guest at the Iranian president’s swearing-in ceremony, along with the leader of Islamic Jihad, the second-in-command of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and top leaders of Yemen’s Houthis. All of them had met earlier and Ayatollah Khamenei gave them a warm welcome.
Iran says Haniya and his bodyguard were killed in a missile attack from outside Iran’s border at 2 a.m. local time while they were at a guest house in northern Tehran.
Israel is believed to have been involved in the assassination of several Iranian nuclear scientists over the past decade, but Israel has not previously targeted a prominent or prominent political leader.
Haniya’s assassination would be a huge embarrassment for Iran and raise questions about the capacity of its security agencies.
Former Intelligence Minister Ali Younesi said three years ago that Israel is so deeply entrenched in Iran that all officials are at risk of their lives.
The incident comes despite claims by Iranian intelligence officials that they are routinely dismantling Israeli networks in Iran.
Now, what will happen?
The concern now is what Iran’s response will be and how the situation will be shaped. What will Iran’s response mean for tensions in the region?
Haniya’s killing comes hours after Israel claimed to have killed one of Lebanon’s Hezbollah’s most senior commanders in south Beirut. This has led to an escalation of Hezbollah’s cross-border missile war with Israel. Iran could ask its proxy fighters to increase attacks on Israel.
Analysts in the region already believe that tensions between Israel and Hezbollah are set to escalate, with the possibility of an all-out war between the two.
The new president of Iran
Haniyeh died when Massoud Pazeshkiyan was sworn in as President of Iran. A new, relatively moderate President Pezheshkian vowed to improve diplomatic relations with the rest of the world.
In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, Pezheshkian said he was raising his hand in parliament, while today he will have to shoulder the coffin.
After declaring his support for Palestine, Pazeshkian said his government will advance national interests, global peace and security through balanced and harmonious foreign relations. Haniya’s assassination would wrap up their intentions, at least for now.
An Iran under a president eager to mend relations with the wider world may hesitate to launch a large-scale all-out offensive against Israel.
However, according to the Hamas-run Palestinian Ministry of Health, the killings will be reduced upon a ceasefire and peace talks to end the conflict. More than 38,000 Palestinians have been killed so far in this Hamas-Israel war.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani, Qatar’s prime minister and chief mediator between Israel and Hamas, said the killing of Haniya would have a serious impact on the talks, as he was a key figure participating in the talks.
For all these reasons, it is difficult to say whether a full-scale war will break out in the region. Such an outcome no one seems to want now, but war is never the result of calculated risk.
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